Every premium quoted before listing, checked against what the stock actually did on day one: 1,294 IPOs since Sept 2020.
GMP is an informal figure from outside SEBI’s framework. Past listings are not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The finding - accuracy against a baseline
GMP called the direction correctly on 76.7% of 1,294 issues. That reads well until you score the laziest possible forecast on the same set: guessing “it will rise” every single time is right 73.1% of the time, because Indian IPOs usually do rise. The grey market’s real contribution is the difference between those two numbers.
GMP called direction
76.7%
Across 1,294 scored listings.
Always guessing “up”
73.1%
Same issues, no information required.
Actual edge
+3.6
Percentage points earned over the naive guess.
Mean error when wrong
15.1
Points of average absolute miss - bias is only -0.15, so it is unbiased but noisy.
By segment - where the edge lives
Mainboard issues earn a real +8.4 points over the baseline. SME earns +1.4 - statistically indistinguishable from guessing, in the segment where the premium is quoted most confidently and retail losses run deepest.
| Segment | Issues | GMP right | Naive “up” | Edge | Size corr. | Mean actual | Lost money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All | 1294 | 76.7% | 73.1% | +3.6 | 0.85 | +27.4% | 18.9% |
Mainboard | 417 | 80.6% | 72.2% | +8.4 | 0.9 | +20.0% | 20.6% |
SME | 877 | 74.9% | 73.5% | +1.4 | 0.83 | +30.9% | 18.1% |
By year - the edge is conditional
In 2026, when just 58.4% of issues listed positive, GMP was worth +18.8 points. In 2022 it was -16.5 - worse than knowing nothing. During the hot years of 2023 and 2024, when almost everything popped, it added under a point.
| Listing year | Issues | GMP right | Naive “up” | Edge | Size corr. | Mean actual | Lost money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 11 | 90.9% | 72.7% | +18.2 | 0.98 | +41.4% | 27.3% |
2021 | 62 | 83.9% | 74.2% | +9.7 | 0.89 | +32.0% | 24.2% |
2022 | 115 | 60.9% | 77.4% | -16.5 | 0.65 | +27.4% | 15.7% |
2023 | 239 | 80.8% | 79.9% | +0.8 | 0.83 | +32.3% | 9.6% |
2024 | 338 | 85.8% | 84.9% | +0.9 | 0.85 | +49.2% | 10.9% |
2025 | 375 | 69.1% | 62.7% | +6.4 | 0.79 | +10.7% | 27.7% |
2026 | 154 | 77.3% | 58.4% | +18.8 | 0.85 | +9.8% | 29.2% |
Worst misses - promised most, delivered least
Ranked by the gap between forecast and outcome. Worth noting that most of these still listed at a gain - the failure is one of magnitude, not direction, which is exactly what a headline hit rate hides.
| Issue | Listed | GMP said | Actually did | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nephro Care India SME | Jul 2024 | +194.4% | +90.0% | -104.4 pts |
Hariom Atta & Spice SME | May 2024 | +302.1% | +206.3% | -95.8 pts |
Resourceful Automobile SME | Aug 2024 | +89.7% | 0.0% | -89.7 pts |
Gujarat Peanut SME | Oct 2025 | +68.8% | -20.0% | -88.8 pts |
Effwa Infra and Research SME | Jul 2024 | +174.4% | +90.0% | -84.4 pts |
Mukka Proteins Mainboard | Mar 2024 | +125.0% | +42.9% | -82.1 pts |
Koura Fine Diamond Jewelry SME | Mar 2024 | +109.1% | +36.4% | -72.7 pts |
Beacon Trusteeship SME | Jun 2024 | +120.0% | +50.0% | -70.0 pts |
EaseMyTrip Mainboard | Mar 2021 | +82.9% | +13.5% | -69.4 pts |
Siyaram Recycling SME | Dec 2023 | +78.3% | +19.6% | -58.7 pts |
Rukmani Devi Garg Agro Impex SME | Oct 2025 | +36.4% | -20.0% | -56.4 pts |
Brace Port Logistics SME | Aug 2024 | +145.0% | +90.0% | -55.0 pts |
Our own verdict - the same standard, applied to us
Everything above judges the grey market. It would be indefensible to do that and not publish our own record, so the apply tag is scored on exactly the same terms: 534 issues that listed from Jan 2025, against the same 61.2% baseline. These figures are regenerated whenever the archive refreshes rather than written down once.
| Tag | Issues | Listed positive | vs baseline | Mean debut | Fell >10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Must Apply | 43 | 93% | +31.8 | +32.1% | 2.3% |
Apply | 132 | 82.6% | +21.4 | +22.4% | 4.5% |
Risky | 253 | 54.2% | -7.0 | +5.4% | 19.4% |
Not Suggested | 99 | 37.4% | -23.8 | -2.3% | 25.3% |
Issues we tagged Apply or better that listed badly. Published deliberately - a scorecard that only showed its wins would be the same failure it was built to point at.
| Issue | We said | Score | Actually listed | Listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Glottis Mainboard | Apply | 89% | -34.9% | Oct 2025 |
Pushpa Jewellers SME | Apply | 88% | -23.8% | Jul 2025 |
Kaytex Fabrics SME | Apply | 88% | -20.0% | Aug 2025 |
Mahendra Realtors SME | Apply | 89% | -20.0% | Aug 2025 |
Genxai Analytics SME | Apply | 88% | -20.0% | Jun 2026 |
Mobilise App SME | Apply | 89% | -19.9% | Mar 2026 |
Simca Advertising SME | Must Apply | 100% | -14.8% | May 2026 |
Indiqube Spaces Mainboard | Apply | 83% | -8.9% | Jul 2025 |
Method
Predicted is the last GMP quoted strictly before the listing date, divided by the final issue price. Actual is the listing price against that same issue price. Quotes dated on or after listing are excluded so the outcome cannot leak into the forecast.
2,003 IPOs were archived; 1,436 have both a listing price and an issue price, of which 142 carry no usable GMP quote and are excluded. Issues with no grey market at all may be systematically different from those with one, so treat the excluded set as a possible source of bias rather than a rounding error. Early years are thin - 2020 has 11 issues and should not be read on its own.
Listing-day price only. Without post-listing prices there is no flip-versus-hold comparison here yet.